A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
