Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics
The average count of daily murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh administrative statistics. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers might not point to enhanced national safety.
Notable Decline in Daily Numbers
Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.
“The result in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very notable,” the President stated, adding that last month the least figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.
Historical Background and Official Plan
Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.
That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings this year.
At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”
The key components of the President's safety strategy involve:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
- Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.
Expert Warnings and Data Limitations
Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.
“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”
As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could mask periods when there were especially high levels of murders.
“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.
Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Public Frustration
But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.
A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas remarked.