Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.