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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still